Reasons for the strong price of neodymium praseodymium and forecast of future market development
At present, neodymium praseodymium oxide is 77-78 million yuan/ton, and the market volume is small. The large metal praseodymium and neodymium factory maintains 980-99 million yuan/ton, and the bulk order is 950--960,000 yuan/ton, and the supply of goods is small. The rare stock exchange is 930,000 yuan / ton, and 20 tons are killed every day. The price difference is large, and it is inevitable to grab the goods. Following the rumors of customs clearance in Myanmar, some merchants are eager to cash out their shipments, and the price of neodymium praseodymium has dropped slightly.
Regarding the market outlook, the price of neodymium praseodymium may rise sharply. In the short term, neodymium praseodymium oxide will reach more than 900,000 yuan/ton, and neodymium praseodymium will reach more than 1.1 million yuan/ton. The specific analysis is as follows:
1. Limited supply growth: Northern rare earth indicators are nearly exhausted, and there is no new increase during the year. Sichuan's production capacity is limited, and the increase in customs clearance of Myanmar mines is small, and the products are expected to be released next year. At present, the supply of scrap is tight, there is no increase in neodymium praseodymium, and there is no spot outflow in the market.
2. Demand continues to grow: The price of NdPr remains at a high level, and the long-term bullish price trend cannot be changed. Downstream terminal consumers are actively placing orders. The increase in NdFeB orders will further support the price of NdPr. From a long-term logic point of view, the country will continue to increase its efforts to save energy and reduce consumption. The transformation of energy-saving links in the manufacturing industry will greatly stimulate the consumption of rare earths. At present, downstream industries are still in a trend of continuous growth.
3. Changes in the supply and demand structure. The rare earth industry has undergone ten years of development. The industrial structure has undergone tremendous changes, from oversupply to short supply. The downstream demand and production capacity have developed rapidly, but the rare earth production capacity has declined.
4. Resistance to rising. After the price of rare earths rises sharply, the pressure on funds will take a long time to resolve. In addition, the bid price of 930,000 yuan/ton of neodymium praseodymium on the rare exchange exchange has also been suppressed. The last is the downstream acceptability, but the terminal consumption has been crying out from 500,000-700,000 yuan/ton, but the price of 980,000 yuan/ton of neodymium metal is still being purchased downstream. The downstream industry structure is changing, the low-end is eliminated, and the mid-to-high-end has a strong premium.
Market outlook: The industrial structure has changed, and the evolution of future demand growth faster than supply growth will not change in the short term. In the medium and long term, we will continue to be optimistic about the rare earth market with tight supply and demand. Feedback on the price, the possibility of further increase in rare earth prices in the future is very high, and will be mainly consolidating at a high level. In the next 5-10 years, with the rapid development of downstream terminal industries, the increase in consumption of neodymium praseodymium oxide will increase rapidly, and the overall level of neodymium praseodymium oxide will remain within the range of 1 million to 1.5 million yuan/ton.
Risk warning: With more and more technological breakthroughs in the future, changes in the consumption structure of rare earths will affect price changes.